Immediate reactions to the banning of Rs 500 & 1000 notes

As Anshul & I sat listening to the PMs announcement and then all the experts on CNBC, we couldnt help discussing what all must be happening around the country in the next 72 hours.

500-1000-note-banWe are surely living in interesting times.

Managing high denomination notes:

  • All secret saving places in the homes/offices/godowns will be cleaned and reviewed today.
  • Piggy banks of kids will be broken tonight. And parents will have a hard time telling the kids why they cant wait for the kids bday
  •  Many would queue up at petrol pumps to get their cars tank-fulled.
  • People with blackmoney would already be approaching hospital owners and petrol pump owners to help them convert their black money into white.

Getting cash with lower denomination:

  • Ppl would queue up infront of ATMs for withdrawing Rs 400/- . Multiple times. Confirmed.
  • People would watch their cash spends like never before.

Moving away from cash:

  • Payment apps will see a sudden spike in downloads and activation over tonight tomm.
  • Wallets will be topped up. Card activation rates will show a sudden spike, esp on the debit cards
  • Uber and Ola will have a field day as autos & kaali-peeli wont be preferred. Pls expect surge pricing.
  • Most small merchants will see a dip in transactions next 2 days. They will teach themselves how to accept cards.

Banks & Payment Providers

  • Opportunistic Banks would send SMS & emails to customers to activate their debit, credit prepaid cards.
  • The CASA books will see a sudden increase as the rate of deposits will be higher and faster as compared to rate of withdrawals from the account. Few dormant savings accounts may become active.
  • Merchant acquiring teams will suddenly be seeing incoming pull business rather than push.
  • Jandhan account activation rates will be very high.

Ripple Effects

  • Like Future Group, many merchants will be open almost till midnight tonight. Grabbing whatever opportunity that exists in this situation.
  • Zomato & food ordering apps will see a growth in business. Their market share of each partner restaurants overall revenues will increase.
  • COD rules will now need to incorporate not just pincodes but the order amount too. COD may be suspended for the next 2/3 days.
  • Property deals would be on hold till the new norm of the market emerges. Or till enough of the new notes find their way into the parallel economy.
  • Odd jobs at home will be postponed. Big hit to the daily wages skilled earner. They would be forced to ask their clients to deposit money into their Jandhan accounts.

Funny Thoughts

  • Patanjali would need a new theme for their campaigns. Kaala-dhan (black money) story would just not fly
  • Marriage season gifting needs more innovative ideas. Envelopes don’t cut it any more.
  • How will the rich temple trusts manage the shift towards less-cash?